Tripod Advisors Tripod Advisors
  • Home
  • About
  • Contact
  • Schlesinger’s Thoughts
  • 关于
2019 Jun.20

What Kind of Periphery Does China Want?

David SchlesingerAsia, China

I contributed the following to China File on Hong Kong’s recent protests and its relationship with China. The full discussion can be found here

What defines China? This month’s massive protests in Hong Kong, whose triumphant return from colonial rule to Chinese sovereignty in 1997 only put off the ultimate question of what happens in 2047 after the expiry of the “one country, two systems” promise, brings that question into stark focus.

With a quarter of Hong Kong’s population in the street displaying pure distrust of China’s legal system and rampant antipathy to the Communist Party and its rule, it must be clear to Beijing that there simply won’t be a smooth slide from “a high degree of autonomy” into being just a second- or third-tier Chinese city. Something will eventually have to be clarified.

Beijing politically, doctrinally, and emotionally can’t and won’t look at geographically peripheral areas like Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang as anything but inseparable parts of China. But what does that mean in terms of practical and pragmatic policies?

The Xinjiang answer, where authority is stamped on a people and a place with the draconian force of surveillance, repression, mass detention, and fear, is one model. It has been effective for China; its authority is clear, there’s a fearful calm, and the international community is largely muted. But Beijing must know the confluence of forces that has allowed it to have its way in its far west—the potent “anti-terrorism card,” the remoteness, the lack of regular international media scrutiny, and the ugly Islamophobia shared at least on some levels by many other governments—won’t be replicated in Hong Kong or Taiwan.

Its need for continued economic growth through Western trade and investment is also far more dependent on Hong Kong and to a lesser extent Taiwan than Xinjiang. That very need for growth sets up the conundrum, however. China’s dream of a powerful “Greater Bay Area,” with Hong Kong as one key shining star in a glittering south China conurbation of 70 million people depends on further and greater integration—integration that Hong Kong’s people showed with their passion, prayers, tears, and unity is not a dream shared on both sides of the border.

The most positive result from Beijing’s point of view is to continue the various forms of compromise that have served it well so far. In Xinjiang, the world community will fudge its principles of human rights. In Taiwan, some form of the “let’s agree to disagree on what being part of one China means” fudge will serve the pragmatists on the island and on the mainland well, even if many of the Taiwanese themselves and hawks within China’s military and Party each push for more clarity (though, of course, demanding very different results).

And in Hong Kong, the powerful push for stability, financial clarity, and freedom from bother and tumult which has motivated the territory’s elites for many decades will win out again, until the 2047 deadline for clarifying and changing the status comes too close to ignore.

But by that time, perhaps China, and the world too, will be very different.

CHINADAVID SCHLESINGERHONG KONGHUMAN RIGHTSProtestsTaiwanXINJIANG
Share this:
  • Previous

    Taiwan Arms Asks Get A Friendly Trump Ear

  • Next

    Xi in North Korea

Latest in Schlesinger’s Thoughts

  • Can the G7 Compete with Belt and Road?
  • Chinese Jets, Taiwanese Angst, American Statements
  • China’s Covid Lockdowns – Testing Times
  • Xi, Putin and Ukraine
  • China 2021 GDP Growth – Phew!

Categories

  • Asia
  • Business
  • China
  • Media
  • Portfolio
  • Speeches
  • Uncategorized

Tags

AGENCY BUSINESS BUSINESS CHINA CHINA CHINAFILE CHINAFILE CPJ DAVID SCHLESINGER DAVID SCHLESINGER diplomacy Economy EXPERIENCE FOREIGN REPORTING FOREIGN REPORTING FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION HONG KONG HONG KONG HUMAN RIGHTS INFORMATION INFORMATION JOURNALISM JOURNALISM LEADERSHIP MEDIA MEDIA Military North Korea PRESS FREEDOM PRESS FREEDOM Protests REUTERS Russia SOCIAL MEDIA SOFT POWER SPEECHES Taiwan Trade TRIPOD ADVISORS Trump U.S. United States Xi Jinping XINJIANG

Archives

  • June 2022  2
  • April 2022  1
  • March 2022  1
  • January 2022  1
  • December 2021  1
  • November 2021  1
  • October 2021  1
  • September 2021  2
  • July 2021  1
  • June 2021  2
  • May 2021  1
  • July 2020  2
  • April 2020  1
  • March 2020  2
  • January 2020  1
  • December 2019  2
  • October 2019  2
  • September 2019  1
  • August 2019  2
  • July 2019  1
  • June 2019  2
  • March 2019  4
  • February 2019  1
  • January 2019  2
  • December 2018  1
  • November 2018  2
  • September 2018  1
  • August 2018  5
  • July 2018  2
  • June 2018  2
  • May 2018  3
  • April 2018  2
  • August 2017  3
  • June 2017  1
  • May 2017  1
  • March 2017  1
  • February 2017  1
  • November 2016  2
  • September 2016  2
  • July 2016  1
  • June 2016  1
  • March 2016  1
  • February 2016  2
  • December 2015  2
  • November 2015  1
  • October 2015  1
  • September 2015  1
  • August 2015  3
  • July 2015  3
  • April 2015  1
  • February 2015  1
  • January 2015  3
  • October 2014  2
  • September 2014  1
  • July 2014  2
  • June 2014  1
  • March 2014  2
  • February 2014  1
  • January 2014  1
  • October 2013  3
  • September 2013  1
  • July 2013  2
  • May 2013  3
  • March 2013  5
  • February 2013  1
  • January 2013  1
  • November 2012  2
  • October 2012  1
  • September 2012  3
  • August 2012  1
  • July 2012  1
© 2016 Tripod Advisors. D. A. Schlesinger Limited. Designed by iPulse Design Ltd.