Tripod Advisors Tripod Advisors
  • Home
  • About
  • Contact
  • Schlesinger’s Thoughts
  • 关于
2018 Jul.10

What Do We See When We See China?

David SchlesingerChina

Here’s a piece I wrote for News-Decoder , a site that aims to help young people explore the news.

By David Schlesinger

Is it China’s century? Or is China a sclerotic, debt-laden behemoth on the verge of collapse?

Is China an engine for world prosperity, first manufacturing goods for the globe, and then, with new wealth, becoming a great consumption colossus, enriching investors everywhere? Or is the world on the brink of the coming China Wars, in the words of U.S. President Trump’s adviser Peter Navarro?

Can outsiders see China clearly? Has the view ever been transparent? Or is that huge and great nation always destined to be a mirror for others’ delirious hopes and exaggerated fears?

These aren’t just idle, academic questions. The United States and China are poised for a tit-for-tat trade war that could have serious repercussions for consumers and workers in both countries. Military tensions in the South China Sea or over Taiwan could easily turn into a tragic mistake.

China is simply too large and too diverse to make blanket statements.

That we’re at this point is due in part to facts but also in large part because an earlier euphoria about China’s promise has been replaced by a new, bleak sourness.

In fact, the answer to all the questions above is: it’s complicated!

With 1.4 billion people, 15 megacities with populations of over 10 million each, provinces with economies the size of developed countries, China is simply too large and too diverse to make most blanket statements worth anything at all.

Its inner workings are also too opaque for outsiders to penetrate accurately. So many articles by very good journalists and academics at the time when Xi Jinping came to power as General Secretary of the Communist Party in 2012 and then President in 2013 predicted – or maybe it would be better to say “guessed” – that he would be a reformer.

In fact, he has concentrated power and cracked down on expression and dissent in ways not seen in decades.

How do we get it so wrong again and again?

People want definitive conclusions and the illusion of certainty.

When I think back over my time as China bureau chief for Reuters in the early 1990s and then my current efforts as an analyst trying to help companies understand trends and political risk, I think there are a number of traps that we often fall into.

1. We see it as a monolith. How many articles say confidently “China says…” or “China believes…” or “China wants…”? Do you believe blanket statements about your country? Or even your school? Blanket statements are accepted journalistic shorthand, but too often they’re built on a wobbly foundation and just can’t stand up.

2. We don’t know the whole country well at all. News organizations are based in Beijing and Shanghai; journalists spend the vast majority of their time there. Just as there’s much more to the United States than Washington and New York, and learning about the rest of the country takes much more than the occasional road trip, so too with China.

My colleagues and I travelled as much as time and budgets allowed, yet there are still vast areas of the country that have never been visited by a foreign journalist – and certainly even the brief visits journalists do make are no way to build up trusted sources.

3. We fall into the “people like us” trap too often. It’s easiest to make friends and sources with people who have similar world views and backgrounds as we ourselves have. Just think about your own circle of friends – how diverse is it really? Even with great effort it’s really hard to learn the surprising and different views, which just might turn out to be really important.

4. People want definitive conclusions and the illusion of certainty. Few will waste their time with mealy-mouthed, on-the-on-hand-on-the-other-hand analysis. Yet the seduction of binary thinking can close our eyes to the subtleties and grey areas where truth actually lies.

I’ve studied China since I was 18; I’m now 58. I think my 40-year journey has been one from black

 

 

CHINADAVID SCHLESINGERJOURNALISMMEDIANewsTrade
Share this:
  • Previous

    Putin-Xi Bromance Shows Up Fractured G7

  • Next

    US -China – Taiwan … A Messy Triangle

Latest in Schlesinger’s Thoughts

  • Can the G7 Compete with Belt and Road?
  • Chinese Jets, Taiwanese Angst, American Statements
  • China’s Covid Lockdowns – Testing Times
  • Xi, Putin and Ukraine
  • China 2021 GDP Growth – Phew!

Categories

  • Asia
  • Business
  • China
  • Media
  • Portfolio
  • Speeches
  • Uncategorized

Tags

AGENCY BUSINESS BUSINESS CHINA CHINA CHINAFILE CHINAFILE CPJ DAVID SCHLESINGER DAVID SCHLESINGER diplomacy Economy EXPERIENCE FOREIGN REPORTING FOREIGN REPORTING FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION HONG KONG HONG KONG HUMAN RIGHTS INFORMATION INFORMATION JOURNALISM JOURNALISM LEADERSHIP MEDIA MEDIA Military North Korea PRESS FREEDOM PRESS FREEDOM Protests REUTERS Russia SOCIAL MEDIA SOFT POWER SPEECHES Taiwan Trade TRIPOD ADVISORS Trump U.S. United States Xi Jinping XINJIANG

Archives

  • June 2022  2
  • April 2022  1
  • March 2022  1
  • January 2022  1
  • December 2021  1
  • November 2021  1
  • October 2021  1
  • September 2021  2
  • July 2021  1
  • June 2021  2
  • May 2021  1
  • July 2020  2
  • April 2020  1
  • March 2020  2
  • January 2020  1
  • December 2019  2
  • October 2019  2
  • September 2019  1
  • August 2019  2
  • July 2019  1
  • June 2019  2
  • March 2019  4
  • February 2019  1
  • January 2019  2
  • December 2018  1
  • November 2018  2
  • September 2018  1
  • August 2018  5
  • July 2018  2
  • June 2018  2
  • May 2018  3
  • April 2018  2
  • August 2017  3
  • June 2017  1
  • May 2017  1
  • March 2017  1
  • February 2017  1
  • November 2016  2
  • September 2016  2
  • July 2016  1
  • June 2016  1
  • March 2016  1
  • February 2016  2
  • December 2015  2
  • November 2015  1
  • October 2015  1
  • September 2015  1
  • August 2015  3
  • July 2015  3
  • April 2015  1
  • February 2015  1
  • January 2015  3
  • October 2014  2
  • September 2014  1
  • July 2014  2
  • June 2014  1
  • March 2014  2
  • February 2014  1
  • January 2014  1
  • October 2013  3
  • September 2013  1
  • July 2013  2
  • May 2013  3
  • March 2013  5
  • February 2013  1
  • January 2013  1
  • November 2012  2
  • October 2012  1
  • September 2012  3
  • August 2012  1
  • July 2012  1
© 2016 Tripod Advisors. D. A. Schlesinger Limited. Designed by iPulse Design Ltd.