ChinaFile asked me and some other China people for our predictions about the coming year. This was mine: “Backlash” is the word for China in 2020. Engagement, progress, friendship, admiration, prosperity—the arc of change for China has moved, with the horrific exception of Tiananmen and its aftermath, in a steady, consistent, and predictable direction. Until..
I contributed this to China File. The full conversation is here. By David Schlesinger “The dragon must have two eyes.” This was the inevitable, hopeful refrain whenever I interviewed Hong Kong businessmen in the 1980s, during the long and tortured handover negotiations. Their point was that while Shanghai might flourish, Hong Kong’s sophistication and internationalism..
Italy may be set to be the first G7 nation to join China’s ambitious and huge Belt and Road Initiative. I discussed the implications with Monocle radio.
With one month to go before a Sino-US trade war either is resolved or erupts again, I talked about brinkmanship diplomacy, intellectual property theft and the future of tech dominance with Monocle radio.
Making predictions is fools’ work, but every year Robert Ciemniak of Real Estate Foresight Ltd. asks me to put my neck out for his China Property Outlook seminar. Here’s my January 2019 view, with a look back to 12 months earlier
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is heading for visits with two of the island’s 18 remaining official, formal allies with diplomatic relations (Paraguay and Belize), with all-important symbolic stopovers in the United States. I discussed the issue on Monocle radio.